Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avis › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review
Future of the human climate niche. / Xu, Chi; Kohler, Timothy A.; Lenton, Timothy M. et al.
I: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Bind 117, Nr. 21, 05.2020, s. 11350-11355.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift/Konferencebidrag i tidsskrift /Bidrag til avis › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › peer review
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Future of the human climate niche
AU - Xu, Chi
AU - Kohler, Timothy A.
AU - Lenton, Timothy M.
AU - Svenning, Jens Christian
AU - Scheffer, Marten
N1 - Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
PY - 2020/5
Y1 - 2020/5
N2 - All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ~11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth's land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.
AB - All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ~11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth's land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation.
KW - Climate
KW - Migration
KW - Societies
KW - CONFLICT
KW - HEAT
KW - HUMAN MIGRATION
KW - PERFORMANCE
KW - migration
KW - climate
KW - societies
KW - KEY
KW - Africa, Northern
KW - Temperature
KW - Humans
KW - Data Mining
KW - Animals
KW - Climate Change
KW - Population Density
KW - Agriculture
KW - Livestock
KW - Human Migration
KW - Population Dynamics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85085539369&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.1910114117
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1910114117
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 32366654
AN - SCOPUS:85085539369
VL - 117
SP - 11350
EP - 11355
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
SN - 0027-8424
IS - 21
ER -