Declining Prevalence of Disease Vectors Under Climate Change

Research output: Research - peer-reviewJournal article

DOI

  • Luis E. Escobar
    Luis E. EscobarUniv San Carlos, Fac Med Vet & Zootecnia
  • Daniel Romero-Alvarez
    Daniel Romero-AlvarezUniv Cent Ecuador, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Sch Med, Unit Mol Parasitol & Trop Med, Ctr Biomed
  • Renato Leon
    Renato LeonUniv San Francisco Quito, Lab Entomol Med & Med Trop
  • Manuel A. Lepe-Lopez
    Manuel A. Lepe-LopezUniv San Carlos, Fac Med Vet & Zootecnia
  • Meggan E. Craft
    Meggan E. CraftUniv Minnesota, University of Minnesota System, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Dept Vet Populat Med
  • Mercy J. Borbor-Cordova
    Mercy J. Borbor-CordovaEscuela Super Politecn Litoral, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral, Fac Marine Sci Biol Ocean Sci & Nat Resource
  • Jens-Christian Svenning

More than half of the world population is at risk of vector-borne diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, and malaria, with highest incidences in tropical regions. In Ecuador, vector-borne diseases are present from coastal and Amazonian regions to the Andes Mountains; however, a detailed characterization of the distribution of their vectors has never been carried out. We estimate the distribution of 14 vectors of the above vector-borne diseases under present-day and future climates. Our results consistently suggest that climate warming is likely threatening some vector species with extinction, locally or completely. These results suggest that climate change could reduce the burden of specific vector species. Other vector species are likely to shift and constrain their geographic range to the highlands in Ecuador potentially affecting novel areas and populations. These forecasts show the need for development of early prevention strategies for vector species currently absent in areas projected as suitable under future climate conditions. Informed interventions could reduce the risk of human exposure to vector species with distributional shifts, in response to current and future climate changes. Based on the mixed effects of future climate on human exposure to disease vectors, we argue that research on vector-borne diseases should be cross-scale and include climatic, demographic, and landscape factors, as well as forces facilitating disease transmission at fine scales.

Original languageEnglish
Article number39150
JournalScientific Reports
Volume6
Number of pages8
ISSN2045-2322
DOIs
StatePublished - 16 Dec 2016

    Research areas

  • ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELS, GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS, SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS, PUERTO-RICO, DENGUE, TRANSMISSION, BIOGEOGRAPHY, EMISSIONS, FRAMEWORK, DYNAMICS

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